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Indian Economic Slowdown: Path to Recovery May go Through Dusty Rural India
Shimla-After the release of economic growth figures for the April-June quarter of FY20 by Central Statistics Office last week, at least we have a consensus on one sobering fact: Indian economy is in the doldrums, and we no longer are the fastest growing economy in the world.
A sizable slowdown has been reported across most segments-manufacturing, farm, mining, construction, real estate, financial, professional services IT, auto, etc. The data on display is alarming considering the huge bearing these sectors have on employment. The slowdown of such enormous scale is likely to increase India’s unemployment rate in the coming months that stood at 6.1% in FY18- the highest in the last 45 years. For some time now, there has been a manifest lack of demand and investment sentiments in the market.
In the thick of all this, disconcerting is the lowest consumption growth in the last 18 quarters – remember the consumption growth was the major driver behind the rapid growth story of the Indian economy and it accounts for significant 55-58% of the GDP.
One of the major reasons for the decline in consumption growth is the shrinking rural wages, which is the result of the unacknowledged farm crisis going across the country for a few years now. As per the World Bank collection of development indicators report, the rural population in India was 66.46% of the total population in 2017. The constant decline in rural wages resulted in a substantial decline in disposable income, hence, the demand too weakened. The constant decline in food prices bedevilled agriculture income and subsequently lowering the spending and hurting the rural demand. In economic, high inflation hurts the end consumers, similarly, low inflation impacts the producers. The lower inflation rate impacted the farm producers tormenting rural India badly.
The favorable demographic profile (65% of the population in India is below the age of 35) of India, initially, acted as a stimulus for attracting investments. As the younger population of a nation aspire their own house, car, yearly holiday, white goods, electronic gadgets, etc. But, as India’s much-touted growth story has failed to generate enough jobs, sagging the aspirational spirits of the youth. Thus, resulting in the slackening of demand, in return, this affected the confidence and sentiments of the investors in the Indian market.
It has a cascading impact in an economy, as an investor invests in anticipation of demand and keeping in view the market sentiments; at present both these factors are lacking in the India economy.
Another reason for the economic slowdown is the decline in the saving rate from 34.6% to 30% over five years in India; the worst dip is in the household savings-the biggest source of Investment and accounts for 61% of the total savings- dropping to 16.3% from 23.6% over the same period. The 18% & 28% GST slabs, that covers 43 % and 19% of the good and services respectively also took a toll on the disposable income, weakened the demand and eating up the savings among the great Indian middle-class.
The credit household debt has also increased manifold in last decade. This has reduced the purchasing power and reduced saving of the household in India.
The credit growth over the years has remained weak- in spite of successive rate cuts by the RBI- owing to the problem of NPA plaguing the banks. The recent liquidity woes in the Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFC) – shadow banking – have also fuelled speculation, instability, and stress in the financial market. This mess in the financial sector has impacted the investments as reflected by the subdued CAPEX cycle also.
The gig economy (responsible for 96% of the employment in the country) is yet to recover from the double whammy of demonization and GST. A testimony to this is the high unemployment rate prevailing in India. Gig in India is too big to be ignored.
Besides this, weakening currency and decline in export only piled up the concerns in the economy, in spite of favorable crude oil prices and low inflation. The aftermaths of the trade war and global slowdown have also started to reflect on the Indian economy.
In India, the richest 10% owes 77.4% of the national wealth; the poorest 60% have 4.7% only. This represents the widening cleavage between the rich and the poor, the growing plutocracy is a concern for developing nations like India. As more and more wealth is concentrated in few hands, instability in the economy increases, making the macroeconomic parameters vulnerable. For such economies with rising plutocracy, a gloomy economic prognosis beacons.
The next few months will be critical for the Indian economy, as demand and investment sentiments need to be spiked up. The disposable income must be increased immediately by revamping at the multiple tax slabs under the present GST regime and replacing them with a simpler lower single tax slab. The technical issues with the input tax credit software should be addressed immediately. This will sort out the delay input credit and reduce its proceeding time too. We need a simpler GST rather than the labyrinth one.
A major part of Rs 1.76 lakh crores given by the RBI to the government can be used on the public expenditure, this will revive the infrastructure projects and boost disposable income and revive demand. This will also bolster the credit demand which has been facing a massive downturn.
For decades now, the Indian growth story was riding on factors like a demographic dividend, a huge market for consumption and a strong base of saving to stimulate investment. But, the time has proved that such a model can’t work for long only on these factors. All these factors are favorable for economic development but, it has to be buttressed with policies that produce high enough economic growth with sufficient jobs; cultivate a conducive investment climate and boost confidence in the system. At present, there is a perceptible lack of these elements.
In developing nations, an economic model driven by consumption growth can’t work for long, rather economic model should be driven by continuous investment.
In India, unfortunately, all the limelight is hogged by urban India, whereas rural India remains unnoticed. Few quarters of stress in the auto industry becomes front-page news; on the contrary years of farm stress does not get any mention. Although, the path to the economic recovery may go through dusty rural India and foster on the sweat, toil and hard work of the prosaic gig economy. Albeit, it may not make a beaming headline. Rural India, for one more time, will not mind; as it never did earlier.
Shimla—A quiet but worrying crisis is unfolding in Himachal Pradesh. Across several districts, traders, hoteliers, and restaurant owners are reporting a sharp shortage of commercial LPG cylinders, leaving many establishments with barely a few days’ supply. In a state where tourism drives the local economy, disruptions in cooking fuel supply can quickly escalate into a wider economic concern.
Local reports indicate the shortage is already affecting hospitality businesses. Traders in Shimla have warned that commercial gas stocks may last only a couple of days if fresh deliveries do not arrive soon, according to a report by Amar Ujala. Restaurant owners have echoed similar concerns in Solan and nearby tourist towns, where businesses fear that kitchens may soon struggle to operate without regular supplies, as reported by Dainik Jagran.
At first glance, the shortage appears to be a regional supply bottleneck. In reality, the problem is tied to wider disruptions in global energy markets triggered by the ongoing tensions in West Asia.
Tourism economy vulnerable to fuel disruption
Himachal Pradesh’s tourism sector relies heavily on thousands of small and medium establishments—restaurants, cafés, dhabas, and hotels. Unlike large metropolitan areas where piped natural gas networks are expanding, most commercial kitchens in the hill state still depend almost entirely on LPG cylinders.
This dependence makes the sector particularly vulnerable. Even short supply disruptions can force restaurants to reduce operations, limit menus, or temporarily shut down.
Industry bodies across India have already sounded the alarm. Restaurant operators have warned that continued supply disruptions could lead to closures across the sector. For a tourism-driven state like Himachal Pradesh, such disruptions can ripple through the wider economy.
The global trigger: instability in West Asia
The roots of the crisis lie thousands of kilometers away. The conflict involving the United States and Iran has begun affecting energy markets and shipping routes in the Gulf region.
A key concern is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy corridors through which a large share of global oil and LPG shipments pass. India’s dependence on this route is substantial. Energy analysts estimate that a majority of India’s LPG imports originate from Gulf countries and move through this narrow maritime passage, as noted in a report by The New Indian Express.
Any instability in the region immediately affects supply chains. Shipping risks rise, insurance premiums increase, and cargo movement slows. These pressures eventually filter down to domestic markets.
Recent reports have also linked rising LPG prices and supply concerns to the Middle East crisis, with consumers expressing worry about the impact of the conflict on cooking gas costs, according to ANI News.
Domestic prioritisation, commercial shortage
When supplies tighten, governments typically prioritise household consumption. Domestic LPG cylinders are considered essential for daily cooking, and maintaining their availability becomes a policy priority.
However, this often leaves commercial users facing reduced allocations. Restaurants and hotels depend almost entirely on commercial cylinders, which are distributed through a separate supply channel.
In response to the emerging supply concerns, the government has reportedly taken steps to ensure adequate domestic availability of LPG, including directing refiners to increase production and manage distribution more closely, as reported by The Economic Times.
While such measures protect households, they can intensify shortages for commercial establishments.
Geography amplifies the problem
Himachal Pradesh faces additional logistical challenges. LPG cylinders used in the state are largely transported from bottling plants located outside its borders. Moving these supplies across mountainous terrain involves long supply chains and limited transport routes.
When upstream deliveries slow down—whether at ports, refineries, or bottling plants—the impact reaches hill towns more quickly and more sharply.
At the same time, alternatives remain limited. Large-scale piped gas networks are rare in the state, and many commercial kitchens lack the electrical capacity required for high-energy cooking equipment.
A warning for energy resilience
The emerging LPG shortage in Himachal Pradesh is more than a temporary supply issue. It highlights a deeper vulnerability in India’s energy system—heavy dependence on imported fuel and fragile supply chains exposed to geopolitical shocks.
For a café owner in Shimla or a hotel operator in Manali, the geopolitics of West Asia may seem distant. Yet the current situation demonstrates how closely global energy flows are tied to local economies.
A disruption in the Persian Gulf can slow tanker shipments, delay fuel supplies at Indian ports, disrupt distribution networks—and ultimately affect the availability of cooking gas in a Himalayan kitchen.
As the situation evolves, the hope in Himachal Pradesh is that supply lines stabilise quickly. But the episode offers a clear lesson: in an interconnected world, even the quiet kitchens of the mountains are not insulated from global conflict.
Mandi|July 11, 2025 — In the lap of the Himalayas, nestled among deodar forests and flowing streams, the district of Mandi has long stood as a symbol of Himachal’s tranquil beauty. But in the monsoon of 2025, that tranquillity was shattered — not by nature alone, but by a deadly combination of climate extremes, administrative apathy, and long-ignored warnings.
This year’s monsoon came not as a nurturing rain, but as a devastating deluge. What began in late June as a forecasted spell of heavy rainfall turned into one of the deadliest natural disasters in recent memory for Himachal Pradesh. And no place bore the brunt quite like Mandi.
The Collapse of Safety
Between June 20 and July 10, the state witnessed 91 rain-related deaths, out of which 17 occurred in Mandi district alone, making it the hardest-hit region according to the State Disaster Management Authority. More than 750 homes were completely destroyed, and another 880 partially damaged, while 10 bridges, multiple roads, and entire stretches of power and water infrastructure were washed away. In just 21 days, the estimated damage statewide crossed ₹750 crore.
The primary culprits? Landslides, cloudbursts, and flash floods — many of which occurred in the dead of night, catching villagers off guard.
In Siyathi village, 67 lives were saved not by sirens or warning systems, but by a dog’s bark. A resident, Narendra, told media:
“It was midnight. We were sleeping. Suddenly the dog began barking non-stop. We ran out. Within minutes, the entire hillside collapsed and our homes were buried.”
The dog, unnamed but hailed as a hero, became a symbol of what worked in a place where institutional response did not.
A Night of Heroes in Deji Village
In nearby Deji, two college students — Ronid Pundir and Sahil Thakur — from Thunag Horticulture College became real-life saviours. When a sudden cloudburst triggered a flash flood in the dead of night, the duo ran from house to house, waking families and helping them escape. Their actions helped evacuate over 150 people.
“We didn’t think twice. We just saw the water rising and started pulling people out,” Ronid told the media.
Despite such moments of courage, the tragedy left deep scars. In many parts of Seraj, Karsog, and Sundernagar subdivisions, residents reported that local authorities failed to respond in time. Emergency shelters were ill-equipped. In remote hamlets, stranded families waited hours, sometimes days, for rescue.
A Failure of Planning, Not Just Weather
Himachal’s vulnerability to extreme weather is well known. Yet critics argue that poor land use planning, unregulated construction near rivers, and unsafe road-cutting practices have greatly magnified the disaster’s impact.
Geologists and environmentalists have warned for years that road expansion projects and large-scale deforestation in hill regions have weakened slope stability. In many places, construction has occurred dangerously close to water channels, despite repeated advisories.
This time, the warnings played out in real-time — with mud, stone, and entire homes tumbling into ravines.
Government Response: Promises and Limitations
Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu visited the worst-affected villages, including Baga, Syanj, and Panglyur, personally distributing relief materials and speaking with the victims.
“No family should feel alone. The state stands with you,” he said during a relief camp visit.
The state government announced ₹7 lakh in compensation per fully destroyed house, and temporary shelters for displaced families. In contrast, the central government’s compensation — capped at ₹1.3 lakh — has drawn criticism from state ministers and the public alike.
Revenue Minister Jagat Singh Negi remarked:
“What we’re getting from the Centre is insufficient. Our people are suffering. We need stronger, faster support.”
A Glimpse into the Future
Perhaps the most chilling aspect of this disaster is that it may be only the beginning. Scientists warn that climate change is accelerating the frequency and intensity of such events in the Himalayas. Increased temperatures are destabilizing glaciers. Erratic rainfall patterns are overwhelming natural drainage systems.
Experts now call for a complete reassessment of infrastructure policy in Himachal — including bans on construction near rivers, better slope-stabilization in road projects, and improved early warning systems for landslides and flash floods.
“What’s happening is not natural anymore,” said a climate scientist from IIT Mandi. “It’s a man-made disaster wrapped in nature’s disguise.”
Beyond Numbers: The Lives Left Behind
In the hills of Mandi, statistics cannot capture the grief. Each day, as clouds gather, a quiet anxiety grips the village once more.
Shimla– In times of conflict, journalism must rise to its noblest purpose: truth, accountability, and responsibility. And yet, as India and Pakistan faced off once again across borders—bullets flying, lives lost, families shattered—a section of the Indian media turned tragedy into theatre.
From the moment reports of cross-border attacks surfaced, several primetime news anchors transformed their studios into shrill war rooms. Not to inform, but to inflame. Graphic war music, animated explosions, ticker tapes screaming “BREAKING”—the spectacle began. As soldiers bled on the border, TV screens bled hyperbole.
The most damning criticism did not come from adversaries but from global media observers. The BBC described Indian news channels’ coverage as “jingoistic and unhinged”. Al Jazeera and The Guardian echoed similar sentiments, noting how unverified reports, doctored videos, and belligerent studio debates replaced sober reportage.
Anchors, who had never seen a trench or a frontline, banged desks demanding military action. Unconfirmed reports were aired without attribution. Words like “annihilation,” “revenge,” and “surgical strike 2.0” were thrown around with theatrical bravado. There was no time to pause for facts. There was no room for nuance. There was only TRP.
The absurdity reached its peak when a few channels aired animations of fighter jets with triumphant music. Meanwhile, real families were burying their dead – soldiers and civilians alike.
In this chaos, journalism died a quiet death.
Media as Vultures
The metaphor is tragically apt. These channels, masquerading as patriots, behaved like vultures—circling the battlefield, feeding off the dead for ratings. Their hunger wasn’t for truth, but for viewership. They amplified hatred, dismissed dissent, and turned war into primetime entertainment.
And in doing so, they embarrassed India, not just at home but before the world.
The Cost of Sensationalism
When media loses its spine, democracy loses its mirror. The consequence is not just embarrassment—it’s danger. Misinformation in wartime can escalate conflict, trigger communal unrest, and mislead policymakers. A responsible media can cool tensions. An irresponsible one can fan the flames.
We must ask: Where is the human cost of war—the widows, the orphans, the destroyed homes? Where is the perspective from peace-builders, historians, and diplomats? Journalism is not supposed to echo government talking points—it is supposed to hold power to account, especially in wartime.
What Needs to Change
The Press Council of India, the News Broadcasting & Digital Standards Authority (NBDSA), and civil society must take stronger action against media outlets that violate ethical standards. Viewers too must switch off noise in favor of news. The Indian media must remember that its loyalty is to truth—not to war, not to government, and certainly not to TRP.
War is not a spectacle. Soldiers are not content. And journalism is not war-mongering.
It is time Indian newsrooms return to their core duty: informing citizens with accuracy, dignity, and humanity.
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