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Petrol, Diesel Prices Can be Cut, But Lack of ‘Political Will’ Keeping Prices in India Highest in World: SBI Economists
Shimla-Petrol and Diesel prices in India could be brought under control and their price could be reduced to Rs. 75 and Rs. 68, respectively, says the SBI’s Ecowrap report released by its Economic Research Department. The Indian Government can do this simply by brining these fuels under the ambit of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the report said.
However, according to the report, lack of political will is keeping Indian oil product prices at one of the highest in the world. This lack of will arises from the fact that Centre and States are loathe to bring crude oil products under the GST regime as Sales Tax/VAT on petroleum products is a major source of own tax revenue for them. The states, in particular, would face a loss in revenue.
However contrary to this possibility, the government had been maintaining that it doesn’t control fuel prices. On February 17, 2021, on a day when petrol crossed the ₹100 mark, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had blamed it all on the previous governments.
The report said that one of the unfinished agendas of the current GST regime is bringing petrol and diesel under GST.
Every state has its own tax structure. The states choose to levy a combination of ad valorem tax, cess, extra VAT/Surcharge based on their needs. These taxes are imposed after taking into account the crude price, the transportation charge, the dealer commission and the flat excise duty imposed by the centre. The multiple taxes have made petroleum products prices one of the highest in the world, the report said.
The base price of Rs 75 for petrol and Rs 68 for diesel has been calculated on the following assumptions: Crude price at $60/bbl, exchange rate of Rs 73 for a dollar, transportation charges of Rs 7.25 for diesel and Rs 3.82 for petrol, dealer commission of Rs 2.53 for diesel and Rs 3.67 for petrol, cess of Rs 30 for petrol and Rs 20 for diesel, GST rate at 28 per cent and petrol consumption growth rate of 10% y-o-y and 15% for diesel y-o-y.
Using all these assumptions, the researchers have found that the base price for petrol and diesel comes out to be Rs 75 and Rs. 68, respectively at pan India level. At this base price, with multiple simulations Centre and States have a revenue deviation from budget estimates by only Rs. 1 lakh crore 90.4% of the GDP) after adjusting for the increase in consumption with the intended price cut.
The report further said that a dollar increase in the crude oil prices will push up the petrol price by around 50 paisa and diesel prices by around 150 paisa and bring down the overall deviation by around Rs. 1500 crore under the suggested baseline scenario.
If this tax structure is used for the Financial year 2022, when Centre and states taxes are already so high, we see that states which have the highest rates are losing revenue if they shift to this GST regime. But this flat taxation structure brings in uniformity and as per the calculations, it brings down the burden of taxes on the common man by almost Rs. 10-30 depending on the product consumed and the state in which it is consumed, the report said.
Additionally, it benefits some states which do not drastically tax their petroleum products, like Uttar Pradesh.
“Interestingly, our simulation exercise suggests that when crude oil/bbl declines by 10 dollars, Centre and states could save close to Rs 18,000 cres, if they keep the petrol prices at baseline Rs 75 and diesel at Rs 68 and don’t pass on the benefit to consumers,” the report said.
Further, the report recommended that the Government should build up an oil price stabilization fund which can be used in bad times for compensating revenue loss by cross subsiding fund saved from good times, without hurting the consumer.
Further, since November 2020, the prices of non-subsidized cylinders have increased from Rs. 594 to Rs 819 in Delhi, a substantial increase of Rs. 255 er cylinder. The data on DBTL (Direct Benefit Transfer for LPG) indicate that the subsidy amount has sharply plunged to merely Rs. 3,363 crores in April-December 20220 period from Rs 22, 635 in Financial Year 2020. There is negligible or no difference between subsidized and non-subsized cylinder.
The report also said that though the government has announced to give one crore more free connections to the needy over the next two years, affordability barriers still exist. The government should focus on the affordability issue and to achieve this, the SBI researchers have suggested a set of measures.
Separately, for the LPG cylinders, the report proposed an increased and graded subsidy to provide to poor consumers which can be tapered off over a period of, say, five years. For this, the Government can create a comprehensive merged database using database of Ayushman Bharat, PM-KISAN, PMJDY, PMUY and MUDRA and then provide these people with maximum four free cylinders in a year. Even if five crore people are eligible for this then the total cost to exchequer per year will be maximum Rs 16,000 crore.
Besides, the report suggested that the Government might cancel its borrowing planed in the last two weeks of March 2021, totaling Rs. 49,000 crores.
Solan—In a shocking incident on Monday, an 18-year-old youth, Pravesh, survived a vicious leopard attack in Sarli village of Arki subdivision. The teenager reportedly fought the leopard for nearly 12 minutes before breaking its jaw, killing the animal on the spot.
Quick Thinking Saved His Life
Pravesh told the media that he was walking from the fields to a nearby shop in the morning to fetch milk when the leopard, hidden in the crops, lunged at him. Noticing the leopard’s tail, he attempted to run but fell after a short distance. During the attack, he covered his neck with his hands to protect himself from fatal bites.
The teenager continued to struggle with the leopard, repeatedly attempting to put distance between himself and the predator. In a desperate move, he grabbed the leopard by its mouth, twisted its jaw, and broke it, killing the animal instantly. Pravesh sustained multiple injuries, including deep claw marks, and is currently receiving treatment at Arki Hospital. Police and forest department teams have launched an investigation into the incident.
Serious Allegations of HP Forest Department’s Negligence
One of Pravesh’s relatives accused the forest department of negligence, noting that similar attacks had occurred in the area previously.
Earlier, a leopard had attempted to attack a scooter rider, who managed to escape. The family said they had informed the forest department on March 6 about potential danger, but no concrete action was taken. Villagers waited for three hours for a forest team to arrive, but none came. When the Block Officer eventually visited, he reportedly told villagers to ensure their own safety. Requests for cages to capture the leopard were also denied, with officials asking for written complaints instead.
SHIMLA | 7 August 2025 –The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast light to moderate rainfall across Himachal Pradesh over the next two weeks, with isolated heavy to very heavy showers likely over the low hills, plains, and adjoining mid-hill regions. While the ongoing monsoon remains vital for agriculture, it also brings an elevated risk of localized flooding and landslides.
Week of August 8–14
Maximum temperatures will range from 22°C to 34°C, depending on elevation—22°C to 28°C in high hills, 26°C to 30°C in mid-hills, and up to 34°C in lower regions. Minimum temperatures are expected to remain near normal, between 12°C and 24°C. Cooler conditions may persist in districts like Kullu and Lahaul-Spiti.
Week of August 15–21
Similar rainfall patterns are expected to continue, with scattered heavy rain episodes. Temperature trends will remain stable, though slightly below-normal maximum temperatures are likely in parts of Lahaul-Spiti, Mandi, Kangra, and Kullu districts.
Outlook for Late August
Rainfall is expected to remain broadly normal, with region-specific variations. Districts such as Kinnaur, Shimla, and Sirmaur may see below-normal precipitation, while Una, Kangra, Hamirpur, Bilaspur, and Solan are likely to receive above-average rainfall. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are forecast to stay close to seasonal norms.
Officials at the Meteorological Centre in Shimla have urged residents and local authorities to remain alert for sudden heavy downpours, which could disrupt road connectivity and trigger landslides—especially along vulnerable hillside routes. Past monsoon episodes have blocked key highways, including routes between Mandi and Kullu and near Banjar, underscoring the ongoing challenges in the region.
This advisory comes as Himachal Pradesh continues to face the dual pressures of sustaining its agriculture-dependent economy while managing the life and infrastructure risks posed by an active monsoon. Continued vigilance and preparedness remain crucial.
SHIMLA | 7 August 2025 –Himachal Pradesh continues to deal with the impacts of the 2025 monsoon season, reporting extensive property damage, loss of lives, and widespread disruptions across the state. According to the official reports from the State Emergency Operations Centre (SEOC), the Department of Revenue, and the India Meteorological Department, from June 20 to August 6, 2025, heavy monsoon rains caused significant damage across multiple districts:
- Casualties: 199 deaths due to landslides, flash floods, cloudbursts, drowning, lightning, electrocution, and accidents; 304 injuries reported.
- Property Loss: Extensive damage to houses (both pucca and kaccha), shops, factories, labor sheds, animal shelters, and substantial crop losses in agriculture and horticulture.
- Public Infrastructure: Over ₹1,900 crore in damages to roads (including PWD), power supply, health, education, fisheries, rural and urban development, and animal husbandry.
Most affected districts include Mandi, Kangra, and Hamirpur, with severe crop and infrastructure losses.
Additionally, 91 deaths occurred due to monsoon-related road accidents.
Public Utilities and Infrastructure Disruptions
The SEOC report dated August 7, 2025, highlights ongoing disruptions:
- Roads Blocked: About 493 major roads and 3 national highways (NH-305, NH-21, NH-05) remain blocked by landslides and floods.
- Power Supply: Disruption of 1,120 distribution transformers (DTRs).
- Water Supply: 245 water schemes affected, threatening access to potable water for communities.
Key blockages include NH-21 between Mandi and Kullu and NH-305 near Banjar and Jhed.
Weather Forecast and Warnings
The India Meteorological Department’s forecast valid from August 7, 2025, includes:
- Isolated heavy rainfall expected throughout the week.
- Thunderstorms and lightning predicted in isolated areas.
- Minimum temperatures near normal or slightly below.
- Maximum temperatures showing a moderate increase.
The public is urged to remain vigilant due to the risks of further landslides and flash floods.
Himachal Pradesh remains vulnerable as the monsoon season continues, with thousands affected by damage, displacement, and disruption of essential services. Authorities are continuing with rescue and recovery operations and are urging residents to stay alert to the ongoing adverse weather. This situation highlights the pressing need for enhanced infrastructure and disaster management strategies to mitigate monsoon-related risks.
Himachal’s LPG Supply Hit Amid Global Tensions, Likely to Affect Hospitality Industry
Himachal Teen Survives 12-Minute Leopard Attack, Kills Predator in Self-Defense
Weather Forecast for Himachal Pradesh For the Next Two Weeks
Monsoon 2025: Himachal Pradesh Suffers 199 Casualties, Over ₹1,905.50 Cr in Damages
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